Too Much Stimulus?

The orchestra is announcing a new tune and I don’t think we are going to like it. Vice President Biden began by saying that the Obama Administration had underestimated the severity of the recession when it agreed to the Stimulus Package earlier this year. President Obama modified this a bit by saying that time has provided more information and the severity is now better understood. Who’s kidding who?

The Stimulus package (all $ 760 billion of it) ended up containing a wide range of spending, and depending upon your views, it was either wasteful or much needed, but in any case, it was way off the mark if the objective was jobs creation. The Obama Administration knew what they were doing and chose to use much of the money for what they viewed  were worthy programs that might not otherwise get enacted once everyone knew how large the deficit was going to be. Now the tune is hinting at the need for Stimulus II.

Jobs and economic growth in a developed country like America is mostly about confidence.   It gets off the track from over heating (too low interest for too long) and poor investments (like unnecessary wars and out of control banking practices).  A confident population consumes and invests in big ticket items with the idea that the future will be better. No amount of stimulus can fix the housing market short term. No amount of stimulus can return all the jobs that have willingly been shipped to China quickly. No amount of stimulus can create more math and science college graduates who in turn can help produce innovation and real value creation immediately. All of this can be fixed in time and with prudent investments and hard work.

Rather than Stimulus II, President Obama should take the time to explain to the American people what it takes to return to the good life they have enjoyed in the past. America needs a manufacturing engine that pays people what they think they need, while producing goods and service that others can afford to buy. President Obama has pointed out before that education is a key component and he needs to emphasize that education does not mean four years of college (read partying) but really means learning and gaining practical experience. Too many young Americans are graduating from college with huge debts and an inadequate education. Too many young Americans are not even graduating from high school and of those who do, in many large cities, 15-20% of those are illiterate. We are dumbing our way to second class nation status.

So Stimulus II had better be a wake up call. America needs its President to tell it like it is and then tell Americans to fix it themselves.

The Limitations of the Left and the Right

Our political spectrum is noted by the perpetual disappointment of the extreme left and extreme right. No elected official seems to tow the line and do justice to their extreme ideas or causes. No one seems to be left enough or right enough.

We hear constantly that “big government is the problem” but we don’t hear how the country would function with no government or even a smaller version of what we got. We hear constantly the need for more government programs but we don’t hear that middle class and poorer citizens should pay more taxes, or that each person has an important responsibility to not waste the government services they now receive.

The extreme left supporters have already labeled the Obama Administration a failure because he has not pushed ideas and programs they want at this time. “Tax the rich and let’s get on with it” seems to be their motto. The right has a bit of a different problem. They do not seem to have an agenda and fall back consistently on “just saying no”. The Bush coalition of bible thumpers, gun lovers, and just plain rich people stood for separate personal interests and now this combo seems fractured. The utter failure of the Bush Administration has made it near impossible for their supporters to argue for more of the same.

Sarah Palin’s recent news puff saying she was resigning as Governor with almost half the term left is not very reassuring, to any thinking person, of right wing Republicans picking of talent.  She seems to be someone who can not see the ethical commitment she made to the citizens of Alaska is being broken by her resignation and never the less seems open to a book deals, a PAC, and whatever speaking engagements that might come her way. This is someone the right adores.

The error of the right appears to be an inability to combine a set of values they prefer with a political candidate who can, on one hand exemplify those values, and on the other hand, execute the duties of their office from the center, so as to govern or legislate for all the voters (not just the right). The error of the left seems to be favoring solutions to current problems with sweeping (and expensive) programs without regard for funding or verification that their recommended programs will working if put into place. Trust but verify.

In the last Presidential election, the left support Barack Obama. The election before they supported Bill Clinton. Both of these Presidents governed from the center, however. The right supported George W Bush and did not support John McCain (certainly sealing his loss). The Office of the President is about hard work and requires both leadership and follow up (all of which “W” was lacking). Republicans would be wise to forget Sarah Palin and begin looking for someone who can find the center, keep his/her private life private, and be willing to do the hard work from the center.

Health care, the increasing rich-poor division, social security, national defense, immigration, and economic growth are not matters of the left or the right. These are national issues and demand pragmatic and practical solutions. The main problem with the left and the right is that extremism is keeping their positive contributions on the side lines and not in the center where progress could be made.

Funeral Lottery

Well maybe it is not a real funeral. Maybe it is more of a memorial celebration. In any case Michael Jackson will be “honored” today with a lottery filled audience. One might never know why these people wanted to attend. Do they miss Michael? Do they want to see the other musical stars who will perform? Do they want to simply take part in a weird piece of American history?

Somewhat like Elvis Presley, Michael’s death is much an occupational injury gone bad. Jackson was a sick man who earned enough money to do as much destructive damage to himself as was necessary to end prematurely his life. Elvis did much the same. In the end, both performers were washed up and must have secretly known it. Being young forever, while attractive in concept, seems never to be possible in real life.

The enormous talent Michael Jackson had, has not been present for quite some time. More recent memories of him are filled with deviant behavior and continuous mutilation of his face. At a time when 40 million Americans do not have health care insurance, and in most large cities, the disadvantaged are shooting each other at alarming rates, why is there such a big deal for someone who could have done so much more to help those without? And if you want to cut Jackson a free ride on helping others, then what about those 10+ thousand lottery winners, why don’t they care as much for the needy as for the nutty?

Biden Speaks?

Over the weekend, Vice President Joe Biden said that the United States would not stand in the way if Israel were to bomb nuclear sites in Iran. Besides being absurd and bordering on irresponsible, it could be seen as a clever diplomatic move. But why did the Obama Administration nominate Biden to drop this bomb?

A quick re-read of Special Ambassador Dennis Ross’ book, “Statecraft”, would reveal an approach to difficult negotiations with a broad array of tools. The Iranian situation must rank up near the top of difficult situations. This is a country that is dirt poor but possesses large reserves of oil (read wealth). Iranian Government practices are based upon theocracy and nothing more needs to be said about the practicality of that approach. Through out history, Iran or Persia as it was once known, has sought to influence, if not control, the events of its neighbors. Somethings do not change.

Interestingly the religious leaders have become relatively wealthy in recent years and could remain financially secure if the Iranian economy were to grow. At a minimum, these Ayatollahs do not want to lose their comfortable positions. The question is how do they retain power while the majority of the country goes without?

The tried and true method for power control by despotic regimes has been an iron fist with its citizens and the nurturing of an external enemy. The people are told how much worse things could be and in effect “stop whining”. Iran’s nuclear program along with its support of Hezbollah and Hamas may have a basis in Iran’s perception of its national interest, but all three, also, irritate the Western world and bring on retaliation. Hence, Iranian leaders can tell their people, “see We told you”.

Statecraft brings together the full arsenal of diplomatic tools, from flattery to threats, from bribery to bombing. The highest purpose of Biden’s remarks is to insert the threat of bad consequences if Iran continues on the path of nuclear development. With Biden saying it, President Obama can keep his high road approach.

I wonder whether President Obama will discuss Iran with Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev? I also wonder whether Vice President Biden stayed on message?

A Re-look at New Haven

In today’s newspaper, there were two different columns with perspectives differing in more ways than one. Jonathan Yoo (of the enhanced interrogation fame) wrote from the right and Linda Greenhouse wrote from the left of Yoo (maybe still in the middle, however). Their subject, the New Haven Firemen Promotion case recently decided in favor of the firemen by the Supreme Court, was either the end of quotas if you are in Yoo’s camp, or simply a political vote if you see Greenhouse’s view. The actual matter of law, or the underlying social issues, seem not to have been of concern to 5 of the Supreme Court Justices (at least 4 in any case).

The Yoo’s of this world have made it. For sure they have worked hard and in all probability have overcome impressive obstacles. They look at anyone or anything that might take away from what they have accumulated, as a criminal about to strike. The “haves” are not about to give much, if anything, to the “have-nots”.

This troubling theme is running through the Roberts Court’s 5-4 decisions.  There seems to be no acknowledgement of the social reasons that have driven laws to be enacted, or procedures to be put in place that takes into account the melting pot that is the United States. In New Haven, the Supreme Court looked the other way and did not insist that there be a diversity positive step in setting criteria for fire department promotions.  They apparently did not think it important  that minority fire department members be included in the upper ranks. This is not a question whether the test that was given lead to results that correctly measured the field (based upon questions asked). Rather, the issue is that probability and sensibility suggest that there must be other qualified minority fire department members, and, who could be successful if promoted. Recent history with police departments and professional basketball and football teams indicate that minorities have broken into leadership positions as police chiefs and coaches, and have succeeded.  (This in no way says that they were the most qualified.)  These accomplishments would not have happened without social pressure.

Arguably there is plenty of fault with the city of New Haven in the sense of how well they thought through the promotion test. And for a lower court to have concluded that New Haven was at fault would be understandable. What is not understandable is for the Supreme Court to find that. Thus, one must conclude that the Supreme Court finding is based solely upon ideological thinking and not upon social considerations. This is simply another reason why citizens must think through their choices for President since the President has the major power in deciding who gets to make up the ideological majority of the Supreme Court.

Hillary and Rush

The past few weeks have been absent two headline makers but for quite different reasons. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is recuperating following surgery to repair a broken elbow. Rush has been busy changing his underpants after having read the news this week, especially about liver damage that could result from consuming too much pain killers.

There are many pressing matters dealing with foreign affairs, North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Honduras, and the two stand-bys, Russia and China to name just a few. Clinton’s unfortunate injury may, however, be a management blessing in disguise. With her mobility hindered, Hillary must communicate with subordinates and charge them with the hard work of face to face negotiations. This is sort of how diplomacy and good government should work.

From Limbuagh’s perspective things could not have been worse. His buddies, John Ensign and Mark Sanford have, both, admitted to being hypocrites joining a long list of others who Rush idolizes. On top of that, Michael Jackson has died, most probably from a over prescription of pain killers. This bleak news was topped this week by government reports about Tylenol and the fastest route to liver damage. And if that was not enough, Al Franken has been certified as the next Senator from Minnesota. What could Rush possibly talk about?

For the rest of us, the fourth of July holiday will give us peace and quiet without having to listen to Rush, and comfort that the State Department is still in good hands.

Headlines

In today’s newspaper, the second page headlines read, “Clamor rises for Sanford to resign”. One wonders who is more empty headed, the population whose feelings were reported or the newspaper that wasted time reporting this as sensible news. It is, I admit, a notch above the even more senseless reporting of Michael Jackson death.

Governor Sanford had an affair and has admitted to such. Like religion, his marital status has no constitutional connection to his role as governor. Short of experiencing a mental disorder like insanity, there is nothing that disqualifies him from the governorship. You might rightfully think he would be so embarrassed that the only thing he wanted to do was to find a big rock and climb under. Arguably it might be inconsistent for the governor to discharge his duties from under a rock.

If the question were instead, would you ever vote for Sanford again I can see a group of sensible people shouting, “no way”. His recent press conferences display someone who might even be questioned as a poor role model for his own children and certainly someone too much a slave to his emotions to govern predictably. The real flaw is, of course, the gross hypocrisy that Mark Sanford and John Ensign represent. They are quick to cast a stone at Bill Clinton or gays seeking equal rights for a committed relationship, and offer impromptu sermons about righteous living and then find it in their capacity to cheat on their wives and embarrass their children and friends. If they had not first worn their supposed religious beliefs on their sleeves (so all the gullible voters could see), one might readily give some room to him now.

What are these people clamoring about anyway?

Sometimes…

Sometimes things just work out right. Yesterday Minnesota’s Supreme Court ruled against Norm Coleman and in favor of Al Franken. So what one might ask?  What does a former comedian and provocative radio and television personality know about Congress, or even of anything really serious?

The answer may ultimately prove to be “nothing”, but we will need to see some data first. A different argument could be made that most everyone else in Congress is so in hock to special interests that they do not own a stitch of their own moral or ethical clothing. A comedian might be just the blow of fresh air we need.

The Minnesota election had both the mark of an unfair election and a home for poor sports. Remember that there were several candidates running, not just Coleman and Franken. Together they gained roughly 84% of the vote with about 15% going to Dean Barkley. So no matter how many times they recounted, neither could get a majority.  In this age of litigation, a run off procedure sure makes sense.   The poor sport award goes to Coleman who on the advice and funding of the national GOP has kept this farce going for almost 8 months.

From my perspective, Franken now has a free card to do most anything as Senator, except maybe taking a run at one of his staffers.  I hope he is at least better than that.

Five To Four

The Supreme Court issued a ruling yesterday, striking down a lower court decision, that favored New Haven’s action to throw out a civil service test as grounds promotion in their fire department. The merits of the case appear to me as very complex and questionable depending upon what responsibilities one assigns to the City and the creators of the promotion rules. Affirmative action and reverse discrimination can not stand alone as clearly right or wrong without a full discussion of the overall context.

The Supreme Court’s decision, however, underscored the sharp divide that exists on the Court, and that a majority decision may carry more meaning ideologically than as a pure example of legal work. Justice Kennedy is a bit of an odd ball and seems to enjoy hearing himself speak. The remainder of the 5 Justice majority (Roberts, Scalia, Alito, and Thomas) are as predictable as a Swiss watch. In America today, this majority represents a minority of Americans.

Our system of appointing Supreme Court Justices is clear and the rules of the game indicate that a straight vote is all that is necessary for a Court ruling. While there are many who hailed the New Haven decision, and would see it as justice in the works, there are even more who question it. The message here is that Congress and State legislatures must do a better jobs of enacting laws that are Constitutional and can be decided clearly at the lower level, and not depend upon the Supreme Court for legal opinions.

Don’t Go Jimmy Carter

President Jimmy Carter was certainly one of the best intentioned Presidents but as a leader and commander in chief, he was a bust. Carter tried to fix everything and ended up fixing almost nothing while watching the economy go sour. It is very important that President Obama find a way to step away from the whirlwind he has found himself in since his inauguration. The critical issues he inherited as well as the noble goals he has set for his Administration require constant involvement but do not require constant fixing.

President Obama has a competent staff and team of advisors who are quite capable of “fixing” the issue of the day. Be it Iraq or Afghanistan, or the banks or GM. With so many issues with short time lines, President Obama and his team could easily get thinking this is real life and the President’s job is to go from fire to fire and put them out. The real job of President is to see that there are others who mostly prevent fires but are skilled and ready to put them out if they ignite.

A young and vigorous Barack Obama may be tempted to seek the spot light or accept his staff’s recommendation that he do this or that. He needs, however, the insight to ask Secretary of State Clinton or Secretary of Defense Gates to speak about Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan. He needs Secretary Sebelius to speak about health care and others to pick up the baton over GM, immigration, energy, and clean air. His gift should be the behind the scenes dialog with these officials to ensure there is a longer term vision, sensible strategies to achieve the vision, and specific measurable tactics to proceed. Obama needs to see how all these fit together and that they are consistent.

The 24/7 news cycles, however, prefer a strong President who hogs the limelight. They prefer sensational stories and the opportunity to show the President is wrong. This will sell more newspapers and achieve higher audience ratings. The principle role of the President is leadership and not problem solving. President Obama, don’t go Jimmy Carter.