The Middle East is a mess. Well, that ‘s not new news. What is news, however, is where it is becoming messier. US foreign policy is between a rock and a hard place. Our past 12 years of Middle East policy seems will produce an unexpected and unwanted outcome.
Tunisia and Libya are inching towards civil war. Somalia could be their model in time. Syria is killing their own citizens. The numbers are rising each day. Yemen is fighting a civil war quietly and spilling blood in their streets in order to quiet protesters.
Egypt has now raised its hand. It says it will open its communications with Hamas and open the boarders with Gaza. Potentially this can have devastating consequences to Israel.
For sure it will show what bad things happen when religious views are mixed with affairs of State. Israelis will see what a huge mistake they have made by not having negotiated in good faith and reached an agreement with the Palestinians long ago.
Iraq is currently not involved. They are so far content to count the days until American troops are fully withdrawn. Iraq will wait and see what happens. Iran’s shadow will drive the Shiites and Saudi Arabia will quietly fund a Sunni resistance. Every so often, both sides will delight in killing each other and taking shots at Israel.
All of this is made possible by the abundance of oil and the unresolved issue of Israel’s right to exist.
The West should know by now that we cannot understand the Muslim faith or why they fight amongst themselves. The West should just stand back. This is their fight and when it is over, we can see what might be possible.
Israel is another story. The West cannot abandon the Jews again. This time, however, there must be reasonable conditions. For example, fundamentalist Jewish groups cannot be allowed to hold a peace process captive because they claim god gave certain pieces of land to the Jewish people. This is ridiculous on the surface and totally impractical at the bargaining table.
If the West steps in to protect Israel (including supply of arms and money), then Israel must take reasonable measures at concluding a peace. If Muslim groups choose not to cooperate, and instead fight, then force should be authorized to defend “reasonable” Israeli boarders.
What a mess.