The Calm Before The Storm

Hurricane Sandy is heading towards land.  The huge storm estimated over 500 miles wide will put some 50 million Americans in danger.  Winds, rain, and rising water pose challenges to all residents in its path, regardless whether they are Republicans, Democrats, or Independents.

 

There is another huge storm scheduled to strike the entire US on November 6.   Pundits are busy speculating how Sandy will also impact the election.

National polls are suggesting that Mitt Romney is gaining.  More voters nationwide appear to be trending in favor of Romney.  Surprisingly, however, in the “battle ground” States it appears Romney’s surge following the first debate has stopped and may be receding.  Why?

There are probably many reasons but two jump out immediately.  (1) The voting population has a relatively short memory.  Combining this characteristic with the saturation bombing with political ads, it is not hard to see why images, even positive ones, can be fleeting.

(2) The second and even more compelling reason is that in battle ground States, a wider range of issues are important and in play for undecided voters.  Most everyone has opinions about jobs and the economy.  In battle ground States, other issues have resonance too.

The auto bailout really means something to Ohio residents.  Medicare costs and Social Security benefits are on top of the minds of Florida voters (as well as others across the country).  Women’s rights, full recognition of homosexuals, and comprehensive immigration reform have been lingering just below the surface for months.  Now in the calm before the storm, voters are taking the time to think broadly.

October 29 and 30 will be the time for Hurricane Sandy.  These days are also represent the calm before the November 6 election.  I wonder whether voters will ask themselves whether they can believe someone who was “severely conservative” in the primary season and now in the final weeks of the Presidential election is overtly tacking towards the center?

The election is going to be close.  The outcome remains uncertain.  Maybe this calm before the storm can help some undecided voters decide.  We shall see.

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Explore posts in the same categories: Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party

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