Long Shot Insight
Senator Marco Rubio is a leading candidate for the GOP Presidential nomination. His candidacy is still considered a long shot and a more probable outcome would be the VP slot. His Presidential nomination campaign shows, however, how difficult life is “to be for this, while also being for that”.
Senator Rubio has gotten himself caught up in a crack of once having advocated for comprehensive immigration reform and now finding himself out of favor with many GOP voters. For most politician this is no real problem. Rubio just needs to say “my thinking on this matter has evolved” and “I now favor a step by step process”.
Rubio, however, has difficulty explaining his new thoughts, most probably because he really does see the merit of comprehensive reform and he must also realize the Hispanic vote will be swayed more by his former position. Hispanics will see Rubio’s flip-flop as “immigration was good for me but now its time for it not to be good for you”.
Senator Rubio’s problem gets even more complicated. Cuban refugees come in two varieties. One group saw the wisdom in Fidel Castro’s revolution and the others still would like to see former Dictator Fulgencio Batista return to power (from the dead). Cuba was and in many regards still is today a land of the haves and have nots. The difference today is the haves are from a different class.
Rubio has found that Florida’s Cuban money and support comes mainly from the “we like Batista” camp and therefore normalizing relations between Cuba and the US is untenable.
To a Presidential candidate with any sense of history, normalization should be a no brainer. Either you are for it (or at least can accept it), or you say nothing. Senator Rubio, however, has not found this an easy transition to make. In fact he has taken the unusual step of putting a hold on Rebecca Jacobson’s nomination as Ambassador to Mexico. Hmmm.
(Remember Mexico which is that Country just south of the border where refugees and undocumented immigrants are lining up to cross our borders. Being without an Ambassador seems anti-productive.)
Jacobson is a career State Department officer who is fluent in Spanish and has served previously both Democrat and Republican Administrations. Why the hold?
According to news reports, the hold is due to Jacobson’s efforts in negotiating the details of the recent Cuban normalization. Hmmm.
Polls indicate that most Cuban Americans as well as most Americans overwhelmingly are in favor pf normalizing relations with Cuba. Simple logic would suggest normalization was long overdue for the island which is 90 miles off the Florida coast. For 50 years Cuban sanctions have not brought about a change in Cuba’s leadership and there is no reason to believe the next 25 years would be different.
So, Rubio is showing American voters a “malleable”, but not vary clear thinking mind. Admittedly, political trade offs are always fraught with pitfalls. Rubio’s position of comprehensive reform and his Cuban retaliation will ensure that if nominated Marco Rubio will not receive a large percentage of Hispanic votes.
And my guess is his hold on Ms Jacobson’s nomination along with his views on women’s rights will not do him well with women voters either.
Many people have felt the GOP primary season is far too public and far too long. Here is an example which might suggest that given enough time, even a person with poor eye sight can see the spots on these leopards.
The long shot is simply not ready.