In 1973, Robert J Ringer, wrote a book titled “Winning Through Intimidation”, a self help book describing ways to be more successful in the art of selling. For someone who approached business as a “tell it as it is, win-win” person, Ringer’s examples were eye opening. The picture Ringer painted of unsavory, but successful characters one would have to deal with in the business world was shocking. Why would anyone waste their time dealing with intimidators and not prefer honest brokers? Hmmm.
President Trump (and his senior advisors) are giving Americans a refresher “Winning Through Intimidation” course. For the Trump Administration, there appear to be no limits on veracity and no retreat from prima facia falsehoods. Yet, four of Trump’s favorite words are “believe me, it’s true”.
Trump’s budget proposal is a clear example of a 21st century negotiation using 1970’s tactics. (I have carefully avoided using the word “strategy” because at this point there are no indications of what the Trump Administration’s objectives and strategies might be.) Trump’s “Winning Through Intimidation” tactic opens with proposed draconian cuts in order to boost Defense and Homeland security spending.
For example, the President has proposed increasing the defense budget about 10%, and offsetting those costs by decreasing a host of Federal programs (including support for science, the arts, and poverty programs). Budget cuts are also to include 30% decreases to the State Department and EPA’s budgets. What is the President thinking?
The President must privately realize that the “mess” he inherited is not former President Obama’s mess. Congress, and more specifically the fundamental division among Republicans, has produced a deadlock and Congress is incapable of making budgetary decisions. The more conservative Republican elements seem ready to throw the baby out with the bath water if that would reduce the size of government.
Medicare and Medicaid make up the largest drivers in both size of government and the deficit components. Although, healthcare reforms similar to healthcare systems in two dozen other “best in class” foreign countries, where effort is put into cost control (doctors, hospitals, and drug companies), and where the waste associated with “for profit” insurance administrators is eliminated, could dramatically reduce healthcare costs, lower the size of government, and in the process secure the benefits of Medicare and Medicaid for years to come. Why no mention of these expenditures yet?
So, let’s speculate.
The President and his advisors want tax reform (read tax cuts for the wealthy) and want a second term. They connect both of these with more jobs and a growing economy. Unfortunately, more jobs (if ever possible) and growth will take time. What can the Trump White House do in the interim to keep his faithful supporters quiet? Hmmm.
Let’s make the EPA and other regulatory agencies the “bad guys”. Let’s debunk science and focus short term on job promises. Let’s emphasize “America First” in a world where an isolationist retreat will stall the economy (but most voters don’t understand that), and buy time.
Inconveniently for President Trump, Republicans have made a “do or die” issue out of repeal and replace Obamacare. President Trump and his advisors realize that a replacement is politically near impossible. They realize there is no way “replace” can happen (60 votes in Senate) with drastic cuts in healthcare benefits or increasing the national debt (which is politically toxic amongst most Republicans). Hmmm.
President Trump is cleverly drawing Republican leadership further out on the “replace” limb knowing that an option acceptable to moderates will be unacceptable to conservatives and vice versa. At some opportune time in the near future, President Trump will inform Republican Congressional leaders that he is about to cut them loose and walk away from their plan because it’s wrong for the people. Of course, Congress could support an Obama-Lite alternative, keep his support, and move onto tax reform which could garner enough support to pass (at the end of the day, all Congress members like to tell their constituents they voted for lower taxes).
President Trump will show Congress members how lower taxes will stimulate the economy and generate new tax revenue, even at lower marginal rates, thereby not increasing the debt. While factually this is extremely unlikely, too many voters will believe it to justify a Congress member taking the chance of going against the President. Hmmm.
“Winning Through Intimidation” will become a must read during the Trump Administration. The Republican Party is a misnomer and will eventually break apart. Unfortunately, during the next four years a lot of unwise actions could take place.
Keep your eyes open and double check what ever you hears. There is a new sheriff in town.