Archive for the ‘Conservatives’ category

In Comparison…

July 6, 2019

The “neo-conservative” foreign policies of the Trump Administration should remind Americans of George W Bush Administration’s hubris days, and where hubris can lead.  The Trump Administration has put forth some amazing policy initiatives and to date, none have yielded anything close to what the President advertised.

As a reminder,

  • “W” didn’t need regulations and deemphasized picking sound Department leaders.  Along comes Hurricane Katrina (not Bush’s fault) and the world got to see third world relief when FEMA couldn’t get out of its own way.  
  • 9/11 was arguably also not Bush’s fault but his administration had been dismissive of al Qaeda before the airplanes crashed. 
  • The invasion of Afghanistan was a positive Bush move but the morphing of the Afghan campaign into “nation building” was a decision made by amateurs. 
  • Not content with one miscalculation, the Bush team (read Vice President Dick Cheney), concocted a story about Iraq, its connection to 9/11 (there was none) and that Iraq was building nuclear weapons (it was not), and the Iraq invasion and Occupation proceeded. 
  • But not done with mega mess ups, Bush and company looked the other way on regulatory controls over the banking system.  Soon bank liquidity dried up and the world stood at the brink of a Depression Era contraction.  Hmmm.

The Trump white House, not to be outdone,

  • opened with a series of unforced errors as Trump seemingly attempted to undo anything and everything President Obama had overseen.  Americans got used to hearing “worst ever”, “ a complete disaster”, and “unfair”. 
  • Latin Americans, especially the “dreamers”, an educated Latin American group who were brought to the US as children were targeted for deportation.  Why? 
  • Muslims were next with visa severe restrictions. Why?
  • The Trans Pacific Partnership, a multi-lateral trade group, which would have given the US leverage in any subsequent trade or foreign policy dispute with China was rejected.  Why? 
  • The Paris Climate Agreement, the only tool the US possessed to help curb global green house increases, was scuttled.  Why?
  • Next came the The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action where Iran’s nuclear development programs was halted, was not good enough for the Trump Administration.  Result: US unilateral withdrawal.  Why? 
  • And then came the tariffs.  Steel and Aluminum tariffs were introduced under national defense claims which were clearly unjustified and will in the future provided an bad example to any other country.  Why?
  • And more tariffs.  Canada and Mexico!  South Korea, Japan and India.  Europe and China followed, and then trouble arose. Both Europe and China are capable of tit for tat reciprocity which translates into higher prices for US consumers and reduced exports for American businesses. Why?

What is the common thread between Bush and Trump.  There are several:

  • Bush was never involved enough.
  • Trump is involved too much.
  • Both surrounded themselves with conservative/republican advisors who hosted extreme views about America’s “exceptionalism”.

IMO, President Trump naively assumed his real estate bully tactics would apply to foreign and domestic affairs.  Trump’s goals was primarily reelection while his family businesses prospered in the background.  The President has enlisted extreme advisors (Stephen Miller, Peter Navaro, Robert Litehaiser, John Bolton, and Larry Kudlow) who perform the detail work on unworkable ideas.  So what lies ahead?

Hmmm.

  • Trump’s Mexican (Latin American) policies are inadequate, immoral, and are not working.  The US needs workers and there is no process to ensure a steady flow.
  • Trade based upon punching the other country first, then negotiating back from this position does not work.  Trust disappears and global realities overwhelm unilateralism.
  • Both China and Russia represent global threats for which the strongest and most cost effective deterrent comes from a coalition of allies.  Trump has alienated most of our traditional allies.
  • Climate change represents the most serious global unknown and the US has abdicated any leadership role.  Consequences could lead to wars and civil rebellions.  Global trade could evaporate.

In short, President Trump, in just 2 1/2 years has set the table for potentially an even worse Presidency than George W Bush delivered.  In comparison, Bush was a decent (if dull light bulb) person, while Trump is a narcissistic, highly overrated bully.  But it is the factions within the conservative and republican ranks which have crafted the specifics of each President’s policies which are to be singled out. 

Defeating Donald Trump in 2020 is a must and returning all of Congress to a Democrat majority will be necessary to clean up the mess Trump has created. 

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Will The Chicken Hawks Return?

February 15, 2018

Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence, has been testifying this past week before Congressional Committees. One news report quoted Coats as saying the US was running out of time to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programs. Coats indicated that soon only military force would remain a viable option. WHAT ???

George W Bush is still alive and so is the chief chicken hawk, Dick Chaney. The memory of their fiasco telling Americans that when the US invaded Iraq our soldiers would be welcomed by Iraqis throwing flower petals at their feet as they marched by. To be sure some Iraqis threw objects at American soldiers feet but flower petals were not the objects.

The Iraq invasion and occupation remains one, if not the, greatest foreign policy failure whose consequences Americans will be visiting for years to come. The invasion opened a pandora’s box (to the surprise of Cheney and Bush) and unleashed sectarian violence through out the region. Instead of intimidating the Iranians, events embolden them to drive even harder developing nuclear weapons.

On the domestic front, Americas recognized once more that older men send younger men off to war, promise the soldiers full support and then proceed to forget about military members including those wounded and maimed when they return home.

North Korea is a two-bit country which may in fact develop nuclear weapons and the means to deliver the weapons to US soil. North Korea will join a list of 8 other nations also capable of deploying the “bomb”. Does Coats think China and Russia will stand by an allow the US to “take out” North Korea or any of the others preemptively?

The conservative right may feel bold and think giving North Korea a “bloody nose” in some type of preemptive move is a wise tactic. Regrettably, these “black-white” thinkers can not recognize today’s world contours. Instead they project American military strength around the world as if military strength was unique and more appropriate than diplomacy. Current generation conservatives appear more comfortable making short term decisions and in the process frittering away America’s moral and strategic leadership.

Strategic patience was the term President Obama used to encompass a comprehensive strategy for combatting North Korea and other uncooperative States. Strategic Patience foresees bad behavior by small countries as a nuisance, not an imminent threat.  And, in any comprehensive policy, President Obama’s Administration tried to engage other powers including Russia and China in attempts to find global solutions for nuisance countries.

In contrast, the Bush/Cheney era was driven by “neo-conservatives” who relied upon rattling the saber rather then undertaking the more nuanced hard work of diplomacy. Sending other people’s children to war against smaller countries was the hallmark of these “chicken hawks”. Shooting first, thinking (about the consequences) later defined these misguided leaders.

Under President Obama, foreign policy was forged with a heavy emphasis on assessing the world as it was and as it was trending. Sending our soldiers into war became a last resort.

I wonder whether Coats testimony has accidentally revealed the emergence of a new generation of chicken hawks?

Want To Be A Sucker?

November 7, 2017

How can any sensible person turn away from lower taxes? Freedom Partners Action Fund, an organ of the Koch Brothers network, is spending real money on television ads which appeal directly to “middle class” families and implore them to contact their Congress Member and demand Congress pass the pending tax cut bill. Is this Democracy in action or a side show “shill operation”?

Would you believe these ads are both?

The Koch Brothers have the money (political spending is an exercise of free speech the Supreme Court has said) so it would seem this is democracy in action. On the other hand, Freedom Partners Action Fund does not reveal how much the Kochs or other wealthy Americans will receive in tax cuts. Current estimates indicate, as expect, the sun will really shine on the very rich.

It would appear that tax cuts will offer “crumbs” to some Americans and a full course, top shelf repast to the top 1%. So, in addition to fairness, the “shill” is betting that many Americans will be “suckers” and not recognize this tax cut bill does not pay for itself.  Remember the consequences of those who think there are “free lunches”. Hmmm.

The US already has an unbalanced budget and a Federal Debt approaching $20 trillion. This tax plan is minimally estimated to add another $1-2 trillion. Republicans, however, are undaunted and promise to cut other government spending, for example entitlements. Hmmm.

Cutting entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security won’t impact the Kochs or for that matter other top 1% earners. Entitlement benefits impact the other end of the wealth spectrum including the “average American”.

It would appear that Freedom Partners Action Fund, Congress, and the Trump Administration are playing the average American as a sucker. Hmmm.

The Other Side Of The Coin

November 3, 2017

House Republicans have just released their proposed tax code rewrite. Experts are rushing to digest the proposal and perform the difficult task of assessing how this Republican bill will impact Americans. Wait, wait… if you are wealthy, you do not need to worry. This Republican plan will treat you well and provide opportunities for clever tax advisors to find new ways to save you tax payments.

The bill provides most (but not all) the gifts the rich have been expecting. The top bracket of 39.5% remains although the income threshold has been raised to $1,000,000 allegedly in deference to the “gift to the wealthy” optics.  Carried interest, estate tax elimination, and reduction of corporate taxes (35% to 20%) for private owner businesses will provide the wealthy with plenty of tax relief opportunities while the tax burden is shifted to lower income Americans.  And, for those unfortunate Americans earning $500,000 to $999,999, you will just have to pay in a lower bracket.

The deal is not set yet. Republicans from high tax States will argue for sweeteners in the restoration of State and local tax deductions and full credit for mortgage interest. Lobbyists representing all sorts of industries will go into full court press to preserve other deductions and credits. It is entirely possible that this attempt at tax code changes will stall or fail outright.

But it is entirely possible that this proposal or something substantially the same will pass. What then?

For sure it is maddening that very wealthy people like the Koch Brothers and Robert Mercer will pay less taxes.  It is maddening that as a consequence, the tax burden will shift to less wealthy people (like the Middle Class), or the cost of this tax cut will flow to the national debt, or both.

But that is not the real damage that this tax code change will bring.

A coin has two sides. On one side, heads, is the smiling faces of Americans paying less in taxes. The other side, tails, however, means there will be less government revenue to cover already approved government spending. Let there be no mistake, with lower tax revenues there must be less government spending sooner or later.

Republicans will be quick to assert that there are all sorts of waste and corruption in government spending. Why, Republicans will point out that there are able bodied Americans drawing social security disability benefits who could be working. And look at Medicaid excesses associated with the Affordable Care Act. And, with their faces now reddened, Republicans will bluster about spending in all sorts of other areas. Surely, cutting wasted money can be made.

Maybe. The problem usually boils down to which programs are viewed as wasted spending and what justification makes those expenditures “wasted”.

For example, Republicans have attacked the Affordable Care Act (train wreck, a jobs disaster) even though there were some 20 million more Americans insured with Obamacare than before. And, what have Republicans offered? Their best proposals offer less coverage and insure 10-15 million fewer Americans.

So, when it comes time to submit “post tax cut” Federal Budgets, what makes anyone think Republicans won’t feel that reducing programs which benefit all but the rich will be perfect targets?

The theme which comes up time and again is that there are no free lunches. Republicans are breathlessly trying to sell this tax code change as great for the middle class and the key to unlocking our economy, and best of all, there will be no cost to average Americans.

Really?

Governing Part II

November 2, 2017

The Republican Party now holds the reigns of government with control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress. Despite this apparent political control, Republicans have been relatively impotent. Governing Part I offers the thought that the Republican Party is a collection of disparate factions whose inherent policy goals are in conflict externally with a majority of voters’ interests, or conflict internally with other Republican factions’ policy demands, or both.

Implementing the Republican majorities has become surprisingly difficult and fraught with potential unwelcome blow back at the next elections.

Does this imply that Democrats would govern better?

Maybe… but at the very least, the Republican dysfunction speaks to the outsized influence mean spirited conservative big money (“dark money” per Jane Mayer) plays.

Democrat governance would speak to different financial interests. IMO, progressive views, characterized as “center, slightly left”, would be far more pragmatic and directionally sensitive than the current regressive Republican policies.

Contrary to Republicans’s notion that America’s future is destined to look like its past, “Make America Great Again” is on the wrong side of history.

  • Globalization is a fact from which retreat is not possible… and still have America grow in economic terms. Low cost manufacture will chase low cost, high quality labor. High cost manufacturing will reduce Americans’ standard of living. Free and fair trade are a must.
  • Growing income inequality is not a sign of globalization, but rather a greedy, thoughtless, and selfish product of wealthy Americans. Labor regulations and a creative tax code are needed to share the fruits of capitalism more productively.
  • Global warming is real and will drive dislocations in energy supplies. Attempts to favor oil and coal over natural gas or renewable energies denies the science behind global warming, increases the atmospheric carbon, and brings on the destruction associated with rising seas.
  • Digitalization (computers, internet, wifi, artifice intelligence and automation) has changed labor’s definition of “good jobs”, basic skill requirements, and the training and education needed.
  • Population growth rates in developed countries has slowed to below replacement rates and has placed a new value on immigration. Comprehensive US immigration reforms is a far wiser approach than building a wall.
  • Most of the developed world see basic healthcare as a citizen’s right and a necessary government/private sector service. Often over looked is that basic healthcare as a right helps center a person’s thinking around the value of government.
  • Retirement protection is an emerging need. With most companies no longer offering defined benefit retirement plans, and 401k savings plans subject to changes in the tax code, a national retirement pension fund would seem wise. The general notion is that retirement with dignity should be a right for everyone but how to fund such a program must be identified.

So, how does the Democrat Party stack up against these realities of our changing world?

  • Dark Money – Democrats have accepted campaign donations from a wide range of sources, dark money conservative sources excepted.  Reasonable limits and full transparency has been a Democrat position.
  • Globalization – Democrats have reluctantly embraced free trade including NAFTA and the TTP despite the objections from organized labor.
  • Global Warming – Democrats have openly embraced the science behind global warming theory and have endorsed policies which restrict carbon dioxide emissions. Democrats have given only lip service to dislocated labor (like coal miners).
  • Digitalization – Democrats have proposed a wide range of training and education programs but as in many other programs, have not told Americans what it will cost to implement their ideas nor what it will cost the Country if these ideas are not implemented.
  • Immigration and a diverse work force are solid Democrat principles, again if these positions can be sold to the Unions.
  • Basic healthcare – Democrats supported the Affordable Care Act but only a few Democrats strongly spoke out for single payer, universal healthcare for all (like that found in Europe).
  • Retirement Support – Democrats support the government’s role in assuring workers the dignity of a social security-like payment which makes retirement “livable”.

Are you ready to sign up for the Democrat Party?

Remember how Democrats acted after the majority Democrat Party passed the Affordable Care Act.   When election time rolled around, however, many Democrat candidates were silent and tried to change the subject when their Republican opponents criticized Obamacare. Democrats did not campaign on the idea of repealing Obamacare, as did Republican candidates, nor did Democrats vigorously defend Obamacare.

Lukewarm, would you call it?

Great leaders come along every so often. FDR, JFK, LBJ, and to a lesser extent, Bill Clinton were effective in passing important legislation. Barack Obama, when Democrats controlled Congress did get through healthcare reform but not much else (except by Executive Order). Obama will be more remembered for what he urged Congress to do as well thwarting what a mean spirited Republican Congress tried to do.

In this age of sound bites and tweets, will Democrats portray themselves in proactive terms? If Republicans are the Party of small government, low taxes, and individual initiative, what are Democrats?

Party of Opportunity, Security, and Leadership (for all Americans) in the 21st Century might be a place to start.

Hmmm.

Governing Part I

October 29, 2017

There has been much written about the inability of the 115th Congress, one with Republican majorities in both Houses, to pass meaningful legislation. In the 113th Congress, Elements within the Republican Party orchestrated a Government shut down squabbling over an ideological but relatively pointless issue. The question is why are current day Republicans so inept when at the Ship of State’s helm?

Could it be there internal inconstancy among policies Republicans claim they hold dear such as:

  • Federal Debt – “Massive, out of control, and an unfair burden for our grandchildren”. In fact, US Federal Debt is about average for all the countries in the world. US Debt is higher than Switzerland, about the same as Germany, and lower than Japan. The real underlying problem with US Federal Debt is that it results from the Congress’ inability to make rational decisions on spending and taxation.
  • Tax Reform – When Republicans mention “Tax Reform”, the are really voicing a free lunch message around “tax cuts”. Republicans claim tax reform will lower (big time) Middle Class tax burden when in fact the tax cuts are premised on lowering the tax for the wealthiest of Americans. Oh, and what about the Federal Debt? This is a shameful policy and consequently Republicans must use all sorts of misdirection and misinformation to keep the voting public from seeing through their scheme before tax cuts are enacted.
  • Healthcare – In the past, Republicans were mainly agnostic about healthcare. Since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), Republicans have been like a dog chasing after a meat wagon. Not surprisingly the Republican mantra overlooks the fact that some 20 million more Americans have healthcare access with Obamacare than before, or that the US pays twice as much for healthcare than other modern countries. It would appear that the national Republican Party goal is to reduce Medicaid involvement and to eliminate taxes which the wealthy pay, and in return Republicans are willing to see millions less Americans receiving coverage. Hmmm.
  • Medicaid – Even if there was not a broader fight over healthcare, Republicans support only a much smaller application of Medicaid. Many Republicans see Medicaid as “an entitlement” (something Americans do not earn) and a naturally growing government handout.
  • Social Programs – Republicans use this broad terminology to imply that Government aid for specific social programs is a wasteful and wrong headed idea. Surprisingly, the tone was different this past week when President Trump declared an emergency around the growing (predominantly white population deaths due to overdosing with opioids. Hmmm.
  • Environment – when it comes to government policy towards issues such as smoking, industrial discharge into rivers, land, and the air, and most recently global warming, most Republicans have been unusually skeptical on the “science” demanding controls. Could campaign contributions drive Republicans to favor businesses and overlook the welfare of its citizens?
  • Immigration – One of the most convoluted arguments Republicans have made is the danger posed by Mexican undocumented workers. The approximate 11 million illegal workers has been labeled as the cause of most violence, a huge drain on social programs, and “line breakers” who are trying to gain citizenship by not following the rules. Mexicans are mostly church goers, family centered, and extremely hard workers who make model Americans if given the chance. Could it be that Mexicans, if given the vote, might vote Democrat?
  • Faith Based Issues – Probably the most shameful and hypocritical position Republicans candidates have taken lie around the issue of god and religion. Republicans stand firmly by the Constitution when they pander to gun owners but are willing to twist the Constitution and accept discrimination based upon ethnicity, gender, or sexual orientation (if the discriminator is motivated by deeply held religious beliefs). This is akin to one Bill of Rights phrase, overriding all other rights if it is favored by a large number of bible totting voters.

The reality of this boils down to who elects Congress members and which issues are the most important. Distorting the otherwise democratic process is the unparalleled amounts of campaign donations coupled with the “legal” and huge amounts of “issues” money.   Mostly all of this money has emanated from the wealthy, and has driven the political conversation to elect a majority of RINOs (Republican in name only). This group, depending upon where in the country they represent, bring a range of intensity to the issue mentioned above.

If instead of keeping the single name “Republican”, each member chose a more applicable name like Christian Republican, No-tax Republican, Big Business Republican, etc, then the current Republican Party would not hold the majority and power would shift to others. So, banding together, even with vastly different depth of feelings around specific issues, makes the Republican brand the majority.

Republicans, however, are showing that being the majority and providing effective governance are two different matters. This year’s Republicans are hopelessly compromised owing so much to so many (tax cuts to the wealthy contributors, discrimination rights to bible thumpers, anti-immigration action to the xenophobes, anti-science policies to short sighted business leaders, and second class and hugely expensive healthcare policies to ignorant (uninformed) Americans.

Republican Congress members are complex and thinking people. Most, if not all, know the real nature of this Post’s issues. Unfortunately too many are willing to “go along”, thereby making unbalanced choices which are setting in motion collisions between common sense and prejudices or flatly unsupportable policies. In such an environment, facts are not important, and democracy suffers while governance becomes problematic.

 

Beautiful Healthcare

October 8, 2017

The Tweet-meister has once again promised Americans “beautiful” healthcare, without the “high premiums” some individual insurance seekers are experiencing. What magic does President Trump have in mind? Do you think he will embrace Medicare for all? Do you think he will recommend the US adopt a single payer system like Australia, Canada, or most of Europe?

Unlikely.

To date, the GOP has been serious about controlling cost exposure for those in the single payer market. Shamefully, the Republicans have chosen various forms of “less coverage”, “fewer insured”, and outright mistruths to portray their proposal as providing “beautiful” healthcare coverage. Why?

Opposition towards the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) has been mainly a partisan political event. Republicans have never been serious about maintaining (or increasing) the basic healthcare insured rolls. Republicans have eyed the single payer (largely individual owner proprietorships) who could be counted upon to vote Republican.  The rest of Americans were far less important.

The GOP has lamented rising rates and declining insurance company participation in certain markets. Behind these crocodile tears, however, has been (you select which one), either (1) a basic ignorance of how any insurance market works, or (2) a cruel belief that those added by Obamacare were mostly lazy Americans unwilling to do what it takes to work hard.

Why would insurance companies keep raising rates in many markets? Does anyone connect that people who were sick and now have insurance might just be using it?

Does anyone think that many who otherwise reneged on paying doctors and hospitals previously (and by the way, those costs were written off by everyone else paying through insurance), and were now enrolled in Obamacare, were not going to use healthcare?

There have been some commonsense proposals, short of single payer, such as putting all single individuals seeking insurance into a group composed of all other single individual Americans (forming groups like employers do). The idea is that insurance companies could then set rates based upon this much large pool.

This approach might stabilize insurance markets but over all there is no way this proposal will lower healthcare spending. People who are sick or have experienced healthcare coverage for the first time with Obamacare will still get sick and will still want to use healthcare services.

The tweet-meistre might do well if he asked questions about how to lower healthcare costs without reducing coverage or those covered.

Such a line of questioning will invariably lead to where costs are generated, namely doctors, hospitals, and drug companies. This healthcare industry is like no other in the modern world and represents 1/6th of the US economy. If in some magical way, President Trump decreed that the US should adopt a healthcare model like Germany or France, where healthcare spending is about 1/2 that of the US (with equal or superior healthcare outcomes), it would require years to transition to that model without bankrupting many doctors, hospitals, and drug companies, not to mention healthcare insurance companies.

All I can say is that after such a transition, healthcare would be “beautiful” for the average American.