From Virus To Protests

Events in the past few weeks are enough to make your head spin.  Without saying so, the nation has had enough social distancing and face masks.  The call to open up and return daily life to something resembling normality is everywhere.  Public health officials make pleas to a largely not listening public.  The consequences of this new cavalier approach to combatting the Coronavirus are yet unknown.  Health officials predict there will be areas with sharp rises in infections and deaths to follow.  Given what can be seen all around us, most people, left to their own will power, will select the “easy” way out.  Hmmm.

And, then came the wake up call.

Thanks to cell phone video, George Floyd’s death this week in Minneapolis, suddenly there was no talk about Covid-19 but instead police brutality.  Senseless death jumped from nursing homes and meat packing factories to “being black” and being in police custody. 

Protests in Minneapolis morphed into looting and disorderly conduct.  Curfews were ignored and out of town protesters blossomed.  “George Floyd” became an icon and a chant protesters all across America learned and repeated.

But there is more.

Major cities from LA to New York City to Atlanta to Chicago to Washington, DC became unwilling hosts to protest groups.  George Floyd was the calling card, the protesters, however, often protesting quite different matters.  Looting, despite all the video cameras in service, flourished each night.  Gratuitous destruction of both public and private property was fair game too.  For what purpose one might ask?

One school of thought apologizes for these mobs’ behavior by pointing to the totally unnecessary 9 minutes the police officer kept his knee on George Floyd’s neck.  Brutality begets brutality, they say.  Others point out that a large fraction of the protesters are not black and many of the looters appear to be seeking items that can be quickly resold.  Hmmm.

Think about

• burden of college debt
• income inequality
• healthcare availability
• good paying jobs availability
• affordable housing
• racism

Each of these factors seem terribly unfair and not part of the American Dream yet each is a real event in younger American’s lives.  “Catch 22” abounds with this list.  If someone does not risk college debt, then the odds of getting a good paying job are dim.  Without a job, healthcare insurance is problematic, without adequate healthcare, bankruptcy is just an illness away.  Affordable housing is a challenge for most Americans and certainly all those earning below the average wage.  And all around the rich get richer… 

In most American cities, the demonstrations which begin as a “George Floyd March” are soon consumed with protesters with other issues also on their minds.  For them the deck is already stacked against them, so what is there to lose, they think.  

So, if one were to think about a national strategy to bring these many marches under control and soon to an end, what would be a wise approach?  How about government “dominating” protesters?  How about government simply using a little more tear gas or more rubber bullets, or more arrests and jail time?  Hmmm.

One would hope our elected representatives could understand that the marches and demonstrations (including lootings and arsons) are only loosely connected to George Floyd and are more aptly viewed as a storm which has been waiting to rage. 

The current Administration is incapable of dealing with this level of complexity and can boast experience only with subjects which can be deconstructed.  Analyzing complex social and economic problems is simply not in this Administration’s wheelhouse.  

What say about

• Paris Climate Accord
• Trans Pacific Partnership
• Iran Nuclear Agreement
• Trade War with China
• Trade War with the rest of the world
• Unfunded Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
• Damning the WHO During a Pandemic

Hmmm.

Scorched Earth?

This past week “Twitter”, for the first time, placed a fact check notice on a President Trump’s tweet.  The tweet in question claimed mail-in voting was akin to voter fraud.  Since there is no evidence to prove this, and plenty of data showing success with mail-in ballots, Twitter simply suggested to readers to check these “additional facts”.  That act of belated bravery has brought the full fire of President Trump.

A few days later, George Floyd’s senseless murder in Minneapolis police custody brought outrage in black communities around the country.  In Minneapolis crowds rioted and burned a police station and looted several nearby establishments.  Understandable but totally unacceptable behavior.  President Trump used the occasion to “dog whistle” his posse by tweeting “When looting starts, shootings start”, a tweet aimed at empowering his supporters, especially those prone to wear MEGA hats. This time Twitter blocked the tweet with a message saying the tweet violated Twitter policy on encouraging violence.  Hmmm.

Both Twitter and FaceBook have shamed themselves in the past by allowing clearly bogus post to remain for view.  Even cases where posted video’s had been doctored, or in others, facts were ignored, or in still some others where crude, vile, and uncouth statements were made, FB and Twitter stood silent.  For some reason, Twitter has now gotten a backbone and with a baby step has said what the real world has known for months… President Trump does not tell the truth.

Mark Zuckerberg, FaceBook CEO, still clings to the idea that FB has no responsibility to fact check much of anything posted, and absolutely nothing of a political nature.  This apparently reflects FaceBook’s strategy to keep away from law suits by saying FB has no editorial involvement.  If the post is wrong, then the problem lies between the offended and the poster.

Jack Dorsey, Twitter CEO, has apparently made the decision that the President has hijacked Twitter and is turning the platform into a Trumpian  political tool.  In the fullness of time, no Trump, no Twitter.   

Offering “fact check” information for someone so prone to distort truth seems a rational and reasonable act.  Readers can still see what the President said (1st Amendment) but can also see additional fact checked information.  

Hmmm.

With over 100,000 coronavirus deaths, and plenty of evidence that Trump’s management failed in time of need, and with polls showing the earth moving away from the President and to his presumptive opponent, Joe Biden, there is no reason to think President Trump will clean up his act in the final months of his reelection campaign.  Instead, it is far more probable that President Trump will use “scorched earth” tactics, with no holds barred as he seeks reelection.

Dorsey, for whatever his reasoning, has acted bravely and even in the baby-est steps provided an example for others to follow.

Memorial Pause

With the coronavirus pandemic still center stage in most countries, the United States seems to be of two minds. 

• Public health officials are cautioning that reopening the economy, and by default discontinuing much of physical distancing, there could be a reemergence of hot spots and possibly requiring locking the economy down again. 
• President Trump’s supporters and many other Americans who seek simply to make a living, want to reopen the economy and live with the consequences.  Hmmm.

Memorial Day commemorated those Americans who had fallen in previous wars.  The day offered Americans a chance to reflect upon the bravery and sacrifices other Americans had made to ensure that others can enjoy freedom.  Parades, cemetery visits, and of course picnics and outdoor activities normally mark the day.  Most people also associate Memorial Day with the start of summer time.

This past weekend, following President Trump’s encouragement and example, many Americans took the opportunity to break out the bathing suit and frolic elbow to elbow ignoring public health officials’ recommendations.  For other Americans, more mindful of the potential to transmit the virus, a much more cautious Memorial Day took place.  Face masks, physical distancing, and concern for others was still the order of the day.  Hmmm.

Coronavirus transmission takes up to 14 days to develop symptoms.  So, in a couple of weeks, the President’s advice and personal example will come home to roost.  How many will draw a winning ticket from the Trump lottery?

Opening Too Soon?

Our Covid-19 saga has entered a new phase where “social distancing” and “isolating at home” are not cutting it with many Americans.  To be clear, overall most Americans are still afraid of the virus’ potentially harmful effects and are willing to accept government restrictions on movement.  In some areas, however, a vocal majority are ready to throw caution to the wind and visit their favorite restaurant or bar.  

This “open America” crowd has three main segments. 

• One part is composed of libertarians who see themselves as grown up adults capable of making decisions for themselves. (It is unclear whether these libertarians feel any responsibility for what their actions might do to others.) 
• A second segment find themselves between a rock and a hard place.  These Americans have bills to pay and no income, or worse they own businesses which are about to go bankrupt with no income.
• And, of course, there are pure “knuckleheads” who do not understand the science or believe the advice public health experts are emphasizing and feel certain “this virus can’t happen to me”.

So the “opening” subject is tee-ed up very clearly. It is all about risk assessment and how to manage risk.   Public health professionals have laid out check points which must be met before they recommend giving the open up signal.  The “open America” group have had enough and demand a relaxation now of public health professional’s recommendations. 

Layer on top of these inherent differences, that the number of coronavirus infection is not homogeneous across the US or in any particular State. In general, rural areas have been spared while more densely populated areas have had serious hot spots.  So it would be understandable for someone living in the rural areas to say “what pandemic”?  Despite this perception if New York and New Jersey states’ coronavirus infections and deaths are removed from the national figures, one might be shocked to see the remainder of the US are still increasing in new cases.  Where is this story going?

Who knows but here’s some thoughts

• As travel restrictions ease and more people travel, especially by air, the coronavirus will inevitably spread to currently under infected areas.
• Demographically, the most “at risk” Americans will remain those with underlying medical conditions like suppressed immune systems, diabetes, and lung disease.  Other markers will be those who work in close quarters (like meat processing plants) or who reside in nursing homes.
• With more new Covid-19 infections, deaths will rise also.  Proportionally, deaths should be as numerous as experienced in NewYork or New Jersey unless the demographics of the new hot spots differ.
• If necessary due to the rise of new “hot spots”, shut downs and social distancing will be much more targeted and limited in scope.  At this point the general conclusion will be that public health  should resemble more the “Sweden Model” where relaxed standards are employed. 
• Wishing the pandemic to end won’t work.  Given where the United States is now, any “return to normal” will require the development of “treatments” alone or in combination with vaccines.  HIV offers an example.

There is literally nothing to be learned from the Trump Administration’s management (or lack there of) this pandemic.  Of course, “tone at the top”, “consistency”, and “harnessing national resources and capabilities” are broad categories where future Administrations should put their emphasis.

For a President who “is not to blame”, “has done nothing wrong”, and “takes advice from some people”, it is simply unfathomable that any future President could perform worse when it counts as much.

The Storm Ahead

Watching Master Piece Theater’s “World On Fire”, one must wonder how a modern and advanced country such as Germany could become so ruthless and misguided.  How could the German citizens allow their country to be distorted like play-doh and lose totally its moral direction?  How could one citizen speak out against another over illnesses like epilepsy or the color of ones skin, or the religion of ones birth?

The answer, of course, is human nature and anyone who thinks that other peoples are immune to the loss of their moral and ethical compass are kidding themselves.  Fear, misinformation, and illusions of grandeur are time tested methods to mold a society into the shape a pretender to leadership may want.  Only rock solid institutions built around rule of law, free speech, and freedom of the press can contain a leader from wandering down a path of authoritarianism.

In three short years, President Trump has, before Americans’ eyes, begun dismantling most all American institutions and the fundamental branches of executive power. 

• The Justice Department is now the Trump Justice Department aligned only to the wishes of the President. 
• The State Department is close behind with Secretary of State Pompeo echoing whatever tirade the President wish to make. 
• The Intelligence Services are next to fall in line with whatever truth the President wishes to be the case. 
• Regulatory agencies might as well stop functioning since they are each headed by a Trump sycophant.  

The Trump train is moving with a building sense of urgency.  The November elections are less than six months away and the potential that President Trump will become a one term President is a distinct possibility. 

But what if the President wins?    Would it be too much to expect a minority of Americans with special self interests to join Trump in seizing power.  Authoritarians and conservatives could combine and help elect someone promising to deliver their distorted dreams around “law and order”, “xenophobia”, and “religious freedom”. Is it too much to fear an authoritarian presidency?

Once reelected the Federal agencies could go from impotent to dynamically supportive of President Trump’s grand plans.

• “Richest man in the world”,
• “President for life”, and
• “A place on Mt Rushmore”

The coronavirus has dealt the Trump machine an unexpected and extremely unhelpful variable.  But what if the virus just went away and the economy miraculously recovered, would Americans care about the dangerous path the country has pursued the past 3 years the incompetent and self serving leadership the President has rendered? 

And should new infections from Covid-19 continue, would President Trump conceive a way to delay the national election or distort the polling place rules so that it favored his reelection?

Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election because she assumed she was the most qualified candidate and a woman who was destined to become President.  In other words, Hillary Clinton fell in love with her self image and did not do the work to grind out a victory.  Joe Biden cannot repeat that miscalculation.

Donald Trump will fight in every gutter he can find, promise every group of Americans what they want to hear, and resort to every underhanded maneuver which may help  him win.  Should President Trump win reelection, the Storm Ahead will look like a walk in the park compared to what destruction a second term offers America and the American way.  

My Rights/ Your Freedom

The nuanced subject of civil liberties has arisen around the consequences of Covid-19.  One example occurs when a government unit declares a “shutdown” leading immediately to the unemployment of others, has the government official overstepped his authority?

A motley collection of “me first” people have been demonstrating in State capitals demanding that restrictions such as business closures, social distancing, and mandatory face mask wearing  be revoked since these measures, made in the name of public health, are infringing upon Americans’ civil rights.  Even President Trump weighed in with his “Liberate” tweets and once again the President tries to have it both ways.

Consider a different example.  Most Americans believe they possess a right to drive an automobile.  They also recognize the need for States to regulate, for safety reasons, the speed at which one can drive.  Regulating speed is all about protecting the rights of others to also utilize roads (exercising their right) in a safe manner.  Stop signs, cross walks, and lane divider markings all limit in some way someone’s “right” to drive a car.  Most Americans have learned to accept these limitations as sensible even when grousing after having driven over a “speed bump” too quickly.

The novel coronavirus, however, brings in the question of “public health”.  Who is the “public” in “public health”?  Who has the right to deny one person the ability to earn a living (mandatory business closures)?  And, why don’t Americans have the right to opt out of protection under “public health”?

The repercussions of exposure to Covid-19 is still so poorly known.   Who will get infected?  Who will show symptoms?  Who will succumb to complications of Covid-19?  And testing and personal protective equipment has been out of reach for average Americans.

The science of coronaviruses belongs to a specialized field of medical knowledge.  Most Americans have limited scientific understanding.  So why would anyone expect Americans who already think owning military style assault weapons is an absolute right suddenly embrace social distancing and stay at home policies?

Add to this mix, public servants who may, in pursuit of public health, over step their authority.  Or “gig workers” who work when they want and are now without employment and no government money to put food on the table.   The “my rights/your freedom” question becomes a little more nuanced.  

Summing this quandary up, it should be clear that “rights” can’t exist in a vacuum.  Individual rights can’t supersede the rights of others or the public’s best interest.  One person cannot claim a right which by its very nature denies another person their freedom.

Since the coronavirus spreads by contact with another person, proper authorities requiring social distancing at certain times during the pandemic seems a reasonable argument and different from those who demand their right

• to smoke,
• to drive a motorcycle without a helmet,
• to consume heroine etc,
• to voluntarily end ones life,
• to seek an abortion

Hmmm.

   

Cooped Up And Ready To Bust Out

What is running through Americans’ minds as they endure social distancing and self isolation?  

America, the “exceptional country”, as we have been told to believe. in fact is the greatest ever.  No doubt America is great (but maybe not the greatest on all measurement scales).  For example, President Tump tells us that the US conducts more coronavirus tests each day than any other country in the world.  On the first impression, that sounds good.  On inspection, however, one finds that other countries have tested far more on a per capita basis.

“Anyone who wants a test can get one”, the President said months ago.  Today coronavirus testing is limited due to lack of something (swabs, reagents, testing facilities) and made available on some metered basis.  So, in reality Americans can get a test only if they met some standard.

In most countries getting tested for corvid-19 is routine. How about masks?  Today in the USA, everyone is encouraged to wear a surgical type mask.  Availability?  Try finding any in the national pharmacy chains or grocery stores, or any place else.  Why?

But in Germany, residents can pick up a mask froma vending machine.  Sounds exceptional to me.