With the singing of Auld Lang Syne, the European Parliament bid farewell to the United Kingdom. Following a UK 2016 referendum, Britain has labored long and hard to strike a deal. This task was made more difficult with the extremely sensitive nature of the North Ireland/Irish Republic border. Through the three plus years of negotiations, Brexit hardliners have continued to promise “fields of honey” once the yoke of the EU was removed. “Britain will be sovereign again”.
Now, the British ship is sailing, and predictions will become reality. Will the future UK be as promised?
Since the 2016 referendum, the British people’s bottom line opinion have wavered as new information predicted unexpected difficulties. In December of 2019, however, a national election swept the Conservative Party into full majority and cemented Prime Minister Boris Johnson control over Parliament. Brexit was approved.
Brexit may proved to be a mistake but at least Brexit must be seen as the will of the British people.
Historians will have a complex task assessing whether Brexit was good for the UK. Should UK citizen’s moods sour on Brexit, historians will have to contend with so many “I told you Brexit wouldn’t work”.
There is almost no chance that the British economy will suddenly look like “silicon valley” or manufacturing will suddenly return to the glory of pre-world war II. Banking and Finance may find their future less clear if movement to the EU is limited. Paris or Frankfurt could look more attractive than a London focused on pound sterling.
England’s 56 million citizens seems tiny compared to the EU’s 500 million. The end to the “free movement of labor” will not change the demographics of the UK and any EU tourist will still know when they are in Germany or in France. But the UK will be sovereign. Hmmm.
Brexit was the result of a populist notion. Whatever was wrong or less than expected in the UK resulted not from UK government, but instead from “evil” bureaucrats in Belgium. The underlying tragedy is that there are always an abundance of politicians who are only too ready to manipulate and exploit voters using “populist” ideas and slogans. Unfortunately, Brexit will be seen for some time as the poster child for popularism.
There is frequently confusion in separating “democratic rule” from “popularism”. And to be sure, both can at times be different faces of the same concept. Brexit, however, lacked any discussion of fact and policy, most likely because fact and policy are often not “popular”.
Rebuilding Europe following WWII has provided 75 years of relative peace and prosperity. England finds itself at a different fork in the road now with hard choices facing economic growth. These choices may not be “popular” or obvious.
Where is Winston Churchill when we need him? Why instead are there only Donald Trump impersonators?