Land Mine

Afghanistan presents the US and President Obama a very murky path. He has declared that this was the war (and not Iraq) that the US should have been focused upon all along. It seems he is more right than he may have realized.

Afghanistan and its Taliban radical Islamic Government was a candidate for “failed State” recognition. By world norms, the Taliban governed with bizarre measures. From simple actions that kept women in a second class, uneducated status to more overt floggings and stonings, the world witnessed governance that rivaled the middle ages.

If that was all, the world might have not paid attention.

The Taliban also accorded al Qaeda a free hand for training and logistics planning. The result we know as 9/11. So, in the spirit of hot pursuit, it is understandable (and certainly justified) that the US invaded and deposed the Taliban Government.

Unfortunately, what is also clear is that the US, despite all the education available did not understand Afghanistan, Pakistan, or the cultural nature of Muslims living there. Once the US embarked upon a nation building mission which had as its primary assumption that the Afghan people would support a freely elected government, the US stepped off into an abyss.

Quite aside from the Afghan realities, US political theater has made both Afghanistan and Iraq images that they are not. Politicians and activist media have told us the local people thirst for freedom and once given its taste, will develop into modern peace loving nations. Politicians have also warned that al Qaeda will follow us home if we were to leave. Conservative politicians have also hinted that only Republicans are strong on defense and in effect cast Democrats in a lose-lose roll. Pull out, you are weak on defense, stay and get pounded, you weak on offense.

Fortunately Iraq is on a path to its end. The Shiite (and Iran) dominated government wants the US out. Afghanistan is on a different time line. The Karzai government wants us to stay as long as there is money to be diverted into the pockets of Karzai associates. There is almost no indication that President Karzai has any idea of a time line when his government will be strong enough to govern (or what the democratic freedoms might look like at that time).

The US military (and particularly the senior officers leading the effort) do not want to be forced out of Afghanistan on their watch. More men, more guns, more time is what we hear from them. Their request while partially understandable also means more money and more death and injuries.

There should be little doubt that if and when the US does pull out, the Taliban will return to power. There should be little doubt that the Taliban will reintroduce the same middle age practices that marked their first government. There should be little doubt that Muslim extremists will be welcome once again. What a mess.

Victory (as in subduing the Taliban) will not happen. Propping up the Afghan government so it can defend itself is propositionally unlikely and certain too costly and too lengthy an operation for the US to support. Staying will not work. Leaving leads to unwanted outcomes. What is President Obama to do?

How about the Nixon approach. Declare victory and pull out. In leaving state that should extremists be allowed the means to train and launch overseas actions, the US would return to punish the host government and destroy the training camps. While costly, it would be far less costly than the 10 year (and running) war we are now in.

Of course, there is another approach. Punt and wait until the next President just like George W Bush did.