Allan J Lichtman, Professor of American political history at American University in Washington, DC, has an unusual claim to fame, he has picked the Presidential winner each election since 1984.
Lichtman has also just published a new book titled “The Case for Impeachment” in which he lays out an argument that the impeachment of President Trump is not about “if” but rather “when”. Hmmm.
Professor Lichtman has been making the rounds of 7/24 talk shows claiming his book is non-partisan and is quick to point out… unless President Trump changes his ways, impeachment is inevitable. Think President Trump will change?
Professor Lichtman has underscored what quite a few others have said. President Trump is hopelessly entwined with conflict of interest issues. Lichtman says that unless the President acts soon and decisively to separate himself from these conflicts, he will be impeached and likely found guilty in the Senate. Those are powerful words although not without some speculative aspects.
There would appear no doubt that the President has conflicts of interest like Carter had little liver pills. The mind bending part for Trump is that he continues to support the “appearance” of further developing these conflicts of interest, not unwinding them. For example, Ivanka Trump received two brand licenses in China on the same day she and President Trump had dinner with China’s President Xi. While most world leaders were distancing themselves from Turkey’s President Erdogan, President Trump who has large interests in Istanbul, called President Erdogan to congratulate him on his victory. Were these events chance or part of a concerted effort to profit as much as possible from his time as President?
The case for impeachment was clear on day 1, but both the public and the Congress were not interested. Hence, no action.
Time, however, has a way of changing opinions and making events once thought not possible, now possible.
Suppose Republicans realize that there is no winnable path to repeal and replace Obamacare, and the GOP also realizes that tax reform, at least the kind associated with a President who will not release his own tax returns, is a non-starter. Oh, and President Trump still pushes an unfunded Infrastructure investment maddening “dark money” libertarians. And don’t overlook that Wall Street could begin to vote with a sustained bear market.
Suppose Education Secretary DeVoss garners a large amount of public distrust as she pushes for vouchers and grants no relief to usurious college loan debts. Or, EPA changes its rules enabling energy companies to frack and drill without government checks, and it just so happens there is another oil drilling catastrophe. Or, use your imagination about what could go wrong with over the top border enforcement or Homeland Security extending its reach into the public’s everyday travels. Hmmm.
The picture might become clearer to Congress that the President is a liability and not a positive face for the next election. With dark money in the background, Congress might just conclude that an impeached President Trump and a new President named Mike Pense is a winning idea. All this could happen comfortably before the 2020 election. Hmmm.
For Republicans this might be a dream idea, but for Democrats and Independents, this appears more like a nightmare. A President Pence brings the same public policy bent as President Trump (and adds a religious evangelism on top), but Pence could be seen by the public as needing a fair chance. The GOP controlled congress might escape the public’s judgement over proposed tax reform (gift to the wealthy), efforts to kill Obamacare (insuring less Americans with less coverage while delivering a generous gift to the wealthy), and ignoring recklessly overturned rules and regulations by blaming President Trump. There is no reason, however, to expect a President Pence to pursue different domestic policies.
For Democrats, an impeachment scenario is a greater than zero possibility, and should it happen there is nothing Dems could do to stop Vice President Pense from taking over. In a dark way, Democrat 2020 prospects might shine brighter with no impeachment but plenty of bad press.
A wounded (self inflicted) Presidency might offer the best Democrat 2020 prospects.
The 2016 Presidential election should never have gone to President Trump but it did because Trump made a more compelling case to enough voters. Democrat leaders had better use the time created by the White House turmoil to get their message in order and begin now defining the 2020 narrative against an ineffective and probably corrupt President Trump rather than a squeaky clean President Pence.